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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|